The Forecast Research Branch is comprised of the following organizational structure:

• Regional Analysis and Prediction Branch (RAPB)
• Local Analysis and Prediction Branch (LAPB)
• Special Projects Office (SPO)

The Regional Analysis and Prediction Branch supports the following research programs:

Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) - A complete analysis/forecast system for hourly assimilation of meteorological observations over the United States into a numerical prediction model, the RUC has been implemented as an operational forecast system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The branch develops and tests improvements to the RUC and its research counterpart, the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS), in the following areas:

• Data Assimilation - Improved techniques for estimating meteorological parameters on a regular grid, combining information from in situ and remote observations with that from a forecast model, and investigation of uses for new data sources, such as rapid updating using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) raw radiances and derived products. The latter task is being performed partly in collaboration with other members of the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, National Envirionmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); and National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP).
• Numerical Prediction - Design, testing, and implementation of improvements to the RUC/MAPS numerical prediction model, with a major emphasis on improving representation of processes near the surface and in clouds, which exert a strong control on mesoscale forecasts.
• Analysis and Model Verification - Statistical and subjective evaluations of RUC/MAPS analysis and forecast products for standard atmospheric variables, surface conditions, aviation-impact variables, clouds, and precipitation.
• Data Sensitivity Studies - Using the RUC, conducted studies to determine the effects of different types of observations on short-range numerical forecasts, including wind profilers, GPS, and space wind lidar systems of the future.

RUC Applications - Development of coupled atmospheric/land surface model capability in support of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) programs and the NCEP implementation of the RUC, forecasting of aviation impact variables (icing, turbulence, ceiling and visibility) in support of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), wind forecasting applied to wind energy utilization, and real-time support for field projects in which NOAA is engaged.

Collaborative Modeling Projects - Lead role in the development and evaluation of the coupled MM5/Air Chemistry model, continued collaboration with NCAR in the advancement of the science of modeling precipitation physics, participation in the development and application of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model system and nonhydrostatic generalized vertical coordinate model, and finally, development of a RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system in collaboration with NCEP.

The Local Analysis and Prediction Branch is engaged in the following efforts:

Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) - Incorporation of local datasets into numerical models (e.g., MM5, RAMS, WRF) for the production of very detailed analyses of local weather conditions and short-range forecasts. The model is updated using variational methods and Kalman filtering techniques with new observations at least hourly. A diabatic initialization procedure known as the "Hot tart" has been developed for reducing the problem of cloud and precipitation "spinup" in the early hours of model integration. LAPS supports a broad clientele of mostly government and military entities, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), Department of Defense (DOD/Army, Lockheed Martin, the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan, and the Korean Meteorological Administration.

LAPS Observation Simulation System (OSS) - Evaluation of new observation technology or siting of existing observational systems. This system has been employed to assess the potential of new satellite systems for instrument placement around eastern and western space centers of the U.S. Air Force and spaceborne wind lidar systems for NOAA.

Satellite Products - Utilization and evaluation of raw radiances and products derived from GOES atmospheric soundings, for the purpose of developing a complete national-scale moisture analysis useful for high-resolution model initialization. The branch also participates in the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation.

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Support - Development of a Standard Initialization procedure for community use in initializing the WRF model with background fields obtained from other models and static data defining the surface properties. High-resolution local applications of WRF are currently being developed and tested, initially for evaluation during the International H₂0 (IHOP-2002) field experiment in the Southern Plains and application for the Coastal Storms Initiative.

WFO-Advanced Support - Full support of an operational version of LAPS on the WFO-Advanced workstation, including both analysis and prediction. The WFO-Advanced forecaster workstation is used to demonstrate Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) functions in support of future Weather Forecast Office (WFO) operations.

Local Model Implementations and Demonstrations - Configuring and installing modeling systems that take advantage of local datasets, advancements in affordable parallel computing, and the results of weather modeling research and developments from FSL and elsewhere. Current and upcoming applications of various models on different computing platforms all take advantage of LAPS initialization. Ensembles of local models will be an increasingly useful approach to numerical weather forecasting problems and applications to a broad spectrum of uses ranging from fire weather prediction to ground transportation needs.

Research efforts in the Special Projects Office consist of the following:

Diagnostic Turbulence Forecasting - Development, testing, and verification of diagnostic tools using the RUC model for forecasting turbulence in support of the Federal Aviation Weather Research Program.

Mesoscale Diagnostic Studies - Research performed to increase the understanding of weather systems, improve conceptual and diagnostic models of the atmosphere using data from conventional instruments and new state-of-the-art sensors, and investigate mesoscale dynamic processes. Current studies include potential vorticity streamers, the structure and dynamics of the low-level jet and its role in moisture transport, the role of gravity waves in turbulence generation and convection initiation, and the dynamics and structure of bores and solitons.

Research Quality Datasets - Production of quality-controlled hourly precipitation data, meteorological data from commercial aircraft (ACARS and AMDAR), and North American radiosonde data for access on CDROMs and the Web. Assessments of and improvements to the set of hourly precipitation measurements are utilized for verification purposes by the Real-Time Verification System (RTVS).

Websites for FSL Data - Development of Websites for the NOAA Chemical Weather Research and Development program, national precipitation data, ACARS data, interactive soundings, national mesonetwork data, and FSL publications.